If-then plans: a small but real difference
Short answer
If-then plans seem to make a small but real difference. In smoking reviews, quitting was 10.7% against 4.9%. For alcohol the effect is small and fades over time, and it was not seen for heavy-drinking nights. That is why we make no big promises.
What is an if-then plan?
"If X happens, I will do Y." For example: "If I want a cigarette after dinner, I will step onto the balcony and drink a glass of water." The decision is made beforehand rather than in the moment.
The numbers
- Gollwitzer and Sheeran 2006: average effect d = 0.65 across 94 studies. This covers all kinds of goals, not substance use specifically.
- Malaguti et al. 2020 (21 studies): alcohol g = 0.31 (0.21 to 0.42), smoking g = 0.31 (0.12 to 0.50).
- McWilliams et al. 2019 (12 studies): quitting smoking OR 1.70 (1.32 to 2.20); quit rates 10.7% against 4.9%.
- Cooke et al. 2023 (16 studies): weekly alcohol d+ = -0.14 (-0.24 to -0.03). Online delivery -0.04, not significant. Heavy episodic drinking -0.01, so no effect. The effect shrinks over time.
How to read this
The effect is small but consistent for smoking. For alcohol it is weaker and absent for heavy-drinking nights. No plan can honestly promise that you will succeed many times more often; that would not match the sources.
Write your own
- Name the trigger concretely: "when I get home on Friday", "when I leave the meeting".
- Make the action small and doable right away.
- Three plans at most. Most people cannot recall more.
- After a week, look at them and change the one that does not work.
Sources
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